PE Trade US-polyethylene trade surges, but tariff risks loom for exporters

Related Vendors

Plastics Industry Association

Jongen Werkzeugtechnik GmbH

CUMSA

DIPROFIL Diamantprodukter AB

U.S. polyethylene exports surged in the first quarter of 2025, driven by strong demand from key trade partners, while imports declined — resulting in a significant trade surplus. However, looming tariff shifts and ongoing trade negotiations may reshape the landscape in the months ahead.

Global trade in commodities, when measured in dollar value, can show varying degrees of volatility due to currency and price fluctuations. In the first quarter of 2025, the value of U.S. polyethylene (PE) exports — a commodity plastic — increased 2.7 percent from the previous quarter, while export volume rose 11.6 percent.

U.S. PE exports totaled over 3.98 billion kilograms in the first quarter — up 11.6 percent quarter-over-quarter and 5.1 percent year-over-year. Nearly half (49.8 percent) of these exports were shipped to five countries — China, Mexico, Brazil, Canada, and Belgium — accounting for 16.4 percent, 11.4 percent, 9.1 percent, 6.7 percent, and 6.2 percent of total U.S. PE exports, respectively. Exports to all five countries increased quarter-over-quarter, led by a 31.7 percent gain in exports to Brazil, followed by increases to Canada (15.3 percent), China (4.8 percent), Belgium (2.9 percent), and Mexico (2.3 percent).

At the same time, imports of PE into the U.S. declined. First-quarter imports totaled 882 million kilograms — down 4.4 percent from the previous quarter and 10.2 percent lower year-over-year. Three countries — Canada, Mexico, and South Korea — accounted for 93.2 percent of total imports, with Canada alone supplying 86.7 percent. Imports from Mexico and South Korea represented 5.0 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively. The combination of increased exports and reduced imports resulted in a trade surplus of over 3.0 billion kilograms of PE in the first quarter.

Tariff risks not yet reflected in PE trade

While first-quarter data showed robust U.S. polyethylene (PE) trade, it does not reflect trends for the remainder of 2025. Ongoing shifts in global trade policy signal potential challenges ahead — especially if current U.S. tariff rates remain high and trade partners retaliate. Canada’s 25 percent retaliatory tariffs, imposed in response to the U.S. steel and aluminium tariffs and effective March 13, do not include PE. Moreover, PE trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is covered by the USMCA free trade agreement, helping preserve stable trade flows within North America.

The United States and the United Kingdom are negotiating an Economic Prosperity Deal aimed at increasing trade and reducing tariffs, while the U.S. and China have agreed to a 90-day temporary tariff reduction, as talks continue. In the European Union, the implementation of EU 2025/778 — imposing 25 percent tariffs on U.S. goods, including PE effective April 10 — has been delayed until August 14. These developments underscore that U.S. trade policy remains in flux as it continues negotiations with its trade partners.

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