After a challenging 2024, Italy’s machine tool sector shows signs of recovery in early 2025, driven by strong domestic demand and renewed investment confidence under Transition 5.0, though global uncertainties continue to weigh on foreign orders.
“For the third consecutive quarter, the order collection in Italy showed a plus sign”, says Ucimu-President Riccardo Rosa.
(Source: Stefano Pedrelli/ Ucimu)
In the first quarter of 2025, the index of machine tool orders in Italy, processed by the Studies Dept. & Business Culture Centre of Ucimu, highlighted an 8.5 percent increase compared to the period October-December 2024. The absolute value of the index was 84.5 (base year 2021=100). The outcome was exclusively due to the recovery of the manufacturers’ activity in the domestic market; on the other hand, the performance was negative in the foreign market.
In particular, the orders collected in the domestic market marked a 71.5 percent rise versus the first quarter of 2024, for an absolute value of 94.5. However, overseas order intake was down by 18.2 percent compared to the same period last year. The absolute value of the index stood at 74.4.
Riccardo Rosa, president of Ucimu , said: “The year 2025 has opened with an increase in order intake. This is good news, which proves that, after a very difficult 2024, the short-to-medium term prospects can be better compared to the recent past. That said the context in which we are working is causing many concerns, especially on the foreign front”.
For the third consecutive quarter, Italy’s machinery and production systems sector has reported a positive trend in order collection. The most recent data show a particularly strong increase, bringing the index close to 2021 levels, a benchmark year for the industry.
This upturn is attributed to greater clarity surrounding the Transition 5.0 initiative. Once companies fully understood the technical details and resolved areas of uncertainty, many proceeded with previously planned investments, leading to new and confirmed orders. The ongoing dynamism in domestic demand reflects Italy’s continued efforts to modernize industrial facilities with a focus on digital and sustainable technologies. This trend is also evident in the strong participation at Lamiera, a key industry trade show taking place in May at Fieramilano Rho, which has sold out all available exhibition space.
Despite this progress, only 11 percent of the allocated resources for Transition 5.0 have been used to date — around 600 million euros out of a 6.3 billion euro budget. This limited uptake suggests that the current structure of the initiative may not be fully aligned with the operational needs of businesses. Past experience with more accessible measures, such as the earlier Industry 4.0 policy, showed much quicker adoption when processes were streamlined and user-friendly.
Stakeholders are also awaiting further instructions on how to access tax credits under the Industry 4.0 framework. Since January, companies have lacked guidance on how to proceed, hindering investment decisions. Greater visibility regarding the availability of the 2.2 billion euros in allocated funds could help accelerate demand in the coming months. However, there are concerns that this effect might be short-lived due to limited production timelines. To address this, industry leaders are calling for a feasibility study at the European level on reallocating unused resources to support new incentives under the 4.0 and 5.0 frameworks, potentially covering the period from 2026 to 2028.
While domestic conditions are showing promise, Italian companies face mounting challenges from the global landscape. The ongoing geopolitical crises, particularly two major conflicts near Europe, combined with economic and political instability in the region, are adding to uncertainty. Furthermore, the potential return of former U.S. President Donald Trump and his unpredictable approach to trade tariffs — varying by country and product category — have created additional instability in global trade relations.
In response to this uncertainty, Italian manufacturers are focusing on diversifying their export markets. The United States remains the primary destination for Italian-made machinery, followed by Germany, China, France, and Turkey. There is a growing emphasis on emerging markets such as India, Mexico, and South America. To support this expansion, Ucimu is facilitating internationalisation through several initiatives, including the Oficina Italiana de Promoción México, Desk India in Mumbai, and Desk China in Beijing. It also operates the ITC and IMT Networks in India and Vietnam to assist companies in approaching these high-potential markets. Further exploratory missions are planned in the Balkan region.
The industry continues to urge government authorities to provide comprehensive support for the development of a robust industrial policy aimed at strengthening the competitiveness of Italy’s manufacturing sector. In addition, there is a call for European representatives to advocate for a unified and assertive European Union approach in fostering constructive dialogue with the United States, promoting global trade stability and international cooperation.
Date: 08.12.2025
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