Challenging conditions Italian machine tool industry ends stagnant 2025, cautious optimism for 2026

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Weak exports and a delayed recovery at home left Italy’s machine tool, robotics and automation sector largely flat in 2025. According to Ucimu, manufacturers are looking to 2026 with guarded optimism, amid geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions and renewed hopes for more effective industrial policy support.

After a very challenging 2024, the Italian machine tool, robot and automation industry closed 2025 with only modest growth, as weak export performance offset a recovery in domestic demand. Manufacturers expect a moderate improvement in 2026, although forecasts remain cautious due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. These are the key findings from the preliminary 2025 figures and 2026 outlook released by the Studies Department and Business Culture Centre of Ucimu.

In 2025, total production of Italian machine tools, robots and automation systems reached 6.42 billion euros, representing an increase of 1.5 percent compared with the previous year. However, the overall result was heavily affected by a sharp decline in exports, which fell by 13.2 percent year on year to 3.71 billion euros. According to Ucimu, nearly all major export markets recorded negative performance, reflecting the difficult international environment.

Based on data from the Italian National Statistics Institute (Istat), exports of machine tools alone between January and August 2025 declined in several key markets. The United States remained the leading destination with exports worth 423 million euros, down 8.1 percent year on year, followed by Germany at 196 million euros (-29.7 percent), France at 145 million euros (-0.5 percent) and India at 135 million euros (-4.2 percent). Poland stood out as an exception, with exports increasing by 13.3 percent to 135 million euros.

On the domestic market, consumption rose sharply by 20.5 percent to 4.47 billion euros, driving a significant increase in deliveries by Italian manufacturers, which climbed to 2.71 billion euros, up 32 percent compared with 2024. Despite this rebound, Ucimu noted that both indicators remained well below the levels recorded in previous years. The export-to-production ratio declined again, falling to 57.8 percent.

For 2026, Ucimu forecasts a further, though still moderate, improvement. Production is expected to increase by 2.6 percent to 6.59 billion euros. Exports are projected to return to growth, albeit marginally, rising by 0.7 percent to 3.74 billion euros. Domestic deliveries are expected to increase by 5.4 percent to 2.86 billion euros, supported by higher domestic demand. Italian consumption of machine tools, robots and automation systems is forecast to grow by 5.9 percent to 4.73 billion euros, while imports are expected to rise by 6.8 percent to 1.88 billion euros. The export/production ratio is projected to decline further to 56.7 percent.

Commenting on the figures, Ucimu President Riccardo Rosa said: “After a really complicated 2024, 2025 confirmed as the year of trend reversal, with a change from negative to growth, however very modest, recorded in the production figure. Actually, we did not expect it could be exports to weigh down the final outcome, as they did”.

He attributed the export weakness to geopolitical instability, ongoing conflicts and trade tensions, stating: “The international geopolitical instability, the ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, President Trump’s tariff war and the consequent new (dis)order of international trade put our exports under severe strain”.

Rosa noted that domestic performance exceeded expectations but remained insufficient to fully offset previous losses. He linked this to issues surrounding the Transition 5.0 incentive scheme, explaining: “On the other hand, the performance achieved by Italian machine tool manufacturers on the domestic market was better than expected, but however, they recovered only a small portion of the ground lost in the previous two years. This was due to the critical issues related to Transition 5.0, which started to be operational with an unforgivable delay, underwent several adjustments, becoming easy to use only in its final months of operation, then suddenly closing more than a month before the deadline set for 31 December”.

Despite these difficulties, Rosa underlined the value of the incentive framework, adding: “Despite the numerous difficulties encountered, the results obtained have demonstrated the usefulness of 5.0, obviously in addition to 4.0, as a measure aimed at supporting investments in new production technologies in Italy”.

On international markets, Rosa highlighted the need to diversify export destinations amid weakening demand in traditional markets such as Germany and the United States. He warned against delaying the EU-Mercosur Agreement, stating: “On the foreign front, the weaking of some markets, starting with Germany, which has been overwhelmed by the automotive crisis - the difficulty of sales in the USA, our primary export market, due to tariffs, and the closure of certain areas particularly rich in opportunities, such as Russia, require even more intense work to develop commercial relations with traditional areas and with ‘alternative’ areas, including the countries of the Mercosur region. For this reason, it is discouraging to read in the newspapers that Italy is among the countries questioning the continuation of the process for the conclusion of the EU-Mercosur Agreement, which has actually reached its final stages. Backtracking now, at a particularly delicate moment for international trade, would be a serious mistake”.

He pointed to Ucimu’s increased engagement in Latin America, including initiatives in Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Mexico, as well as continued focus on fast-growing Asian markets such as India and Southeast Asia. Regarding Europe, Rosa stressed the importance of policy adjustments to support industrial competitiveness, concluding: “Turning our gaze towards Europe, while waiting to see how the German economy and manufacturing industry will respond to the measures implemented by the Merz government, the hope is that the EU will intervene to correct the timing and methods of the transition towards green mobility, so as to avoid the risk of industrial desertification in the Old Continent. In our opinion, the principle of technological neutrality is the only appropriate response to this situation.”

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